Daniel Research Group (DRG) says three key causal factors will influence the personal computing and communications market over the next five years.

The research group expects desktop and mobile PC shipments to be slightly down this year (-0.6%), it anticipates healthy growth in 2018 (5.3%) before the economic slow-down moderates growth in 2019-2020 (1.6%, 1.9%), followed by a return to higher growth (5.7%) in 2020 as the economy recovers. Over the same period, mobile phones shipments will continue slow growth in line with historic rates, while tablets shipments will fall sharply losing share to mobile PCs and smartphones, says DRG.

"The average age of the personal computing device installed base has reached historic high,” says President Stephen Daniel. “Newer models better meeting users expanding content delivery, capture, and creation needs will replace many of these PCs and Tablets.  We expect replacement rates to accelerate for the next two years, flatten during the economic slow-down, and pick-up again in 2021." 

DRG's research results show an increasing preference by both Consumer and Enterprise users for traditional and convertible mobile PCs over detachable tablets, as well as a growing consumer preference for smartphones for content delivery.